Lifestyle: games: why Las Vegas in Parker Brothers’ Careers® is a good deal.

Tutoring probability, a better example than this might be hard to find. The tutor explains about the Las Vegas square in Careers® by Parker Brothers.

I explain expected value in my post from August 16, 2013, showing by example that the expected value of rolling a fair six-sided die is 3.5.

My younger son and I have played Careers® often at times. From early on, he has enjoyed the Las Vegas square. On that square, the player pays $3K, then gets back $1K multiplied by the roll of one die.

With the expected value of the roll being 3.5, the player is expected to receive $3500, so come out ahead by $500 each time, on average. I wonder if, intuitively, my son realized that soon after we started playing, when he would have been around 7 years old.

I don’t imagine Las Vegas in real life gives as promising odds as Las Vegas in Careers®.

Jack of Oracle Tutoring by Jack and Diane, Campbell River, BC.

Probability, demographics: a person’s chance of reaching age 100

The tutor reports an interesting statistic.

In 2013, the world population was approximately 7.07 billion. At the same time, people aged ≥ 100 numbered about 450 thousand. Those figures suggest that a completely random person on Earth has probability 450 000/7 070 000 000 = 0.000064 of reaching age 100 or greater.

The probability equates to about 64 in one million.


Oracle Tutoring by Jack and Diane, Campbell River, BC.