The tutor imagines an experiment in probability.

For most people, probability becomes interesting when you can apply it to a believable situation. Let’s explore the following premise:

Example 1

Around a farm live twelve wild foxes. Eleven are red, but one is white. In the same field of vision, the white one is four times as likely to be noticed as a red one. Assuming the foxes all behave similarly, what is the probability that, out for a walk on the farm, you’ll notice the white one first?

Solution:

If the white fox is four times as noticeable as a red one, the ratio between the likelihood of seeing it and the eleven red ones can be given as 4:11. Some people might call this ratio the odds of seeing the white one first.

The 4:11 ratio suggests that in fifteen fox sightings, four will be of the white one. Therefore, the probability of seeing the white fox first is ⁴⁄₁₅.

Notice that odds and probability, though closely related, are not the same.

I’ve never seen any fox outdoors:)

Source:

Tan, S. T. Applied Finite Mathematics. Boston: PWS-KENT, 1990.

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