{"id":39240,"date":"2020-04-26T16:55:55","date_gmt":"2020-04-26T16:55:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/?p=39240"},"modified":"2020-04-26T16:55:57","modified_gmt":"2020-04-26T16:55:57","slug":"statistics-base-rate-fallacy-part-1-false-positive-paradox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/statistics-base-rate-fallacy-part-1-false-positive-paradox\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistics: base rate fallacy, part 1: false-positive paradox"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2>Tutoring statistics, you encounter day-to-day ideas. The tutor mentions the false-positive paradox.<\/h2>\n<p>\n<em>false-positive paradox<\/em>: In a population where condition A is extremely uncommon, most tests for it that yield &#8220;positive&#8221; may likely be false.\n<\/p>\n<p>\nThe false-positive paradox is easy to imagine with diseases: suppose any person, showing no symptoms but with known exposure to disease A, carries it with probability 0.002. A blood test to detect its presence will give a false-positive for 5% of non-carriers. Then, from a population of 1000 people exposed to A, only 2 people will actually carry it, but 50 non-carriers will test positive for it.<\/p>\n<p>Source:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.epicenter.works\/content\/an-explainer-on-the-base-rate-fallacy-and-pnr\">en.epicenter.works<\/a><\/p>\nJack of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\">Oracle Tutoring by Jack and Diane,<\/a> Campbell River, BC.\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tutoring statistics, you encounter day-to-day ideas. The tutor mentions the false-positive paradox. false-positive paradox: In a population where condition A is extremely uncommon, most tests for it that yield &#8220;positive&#8221; may likely be false. The false-positive paradox is easy to &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/statistics-base-rate-fallacy-part-1-false-positive-paradox\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Statistics: base rate fallacy, part 1: false-positive paradox<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39240"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39247,"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39240\/revisions\/39247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oracletutoring.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}