Is the real probability of an event calculable from theory?<\/p>\n
First, let’s imagine tossing a coin. Theoretically, its probability of heads is 0.5 – tails, also 0.5.<\/p>\n
Let’s say you perform 1000 coin tosses and observe 460 heads and 540 tails. Would you still believe that the probability of heads is 0.5?<\/p>\n
The point: some people only trust experience, when they have it. Experience may not necessarily be direct, but rather based on someone else’s they know, or even a synthesis of indirect experiences. If I can reach Person X, they’ll know what to do — they’ve never failed me.<\/em> Even in a completely new situation, they will trust Person X, given how helpful they’ve been in other situations.<\/p>\n How people compute probabilities – even being totally unaware they’re doing so – can make one’s choices different from another’s. You see the choices, but the decision process behind them can be very subtle.<\/p>\n With the world changing so quickly, it can be harder and harder to trust reasoning, or “theoretical” probability, since the factors involved constantly change. I would have said oil at a negative price was impossible, but it happened. More and more impossible things seem to happen; perhaps as a result, I sense that many people are becoming even less theoretical in how they determine probabilities, even with so much more information seemingly available.<\/p>\n Source:<\/p>\n marketwatch.com<\/p>\nJack of Oracle Tutoring by Jack and Diane,<\/a> Campbell River, BC.\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Self-tutoring about probability: the tutor gets (perhaps) philosophical as well. Is the real probability of an event calculable from theory? First, let’s imagine tossing a coin. Theoretically, its probability of heads is 0.5 – tails, also 0.5. Let’s say you …<\/p>\n