Politics: the tricky idea about incumbents and inflation
Self-tutoring about politics and economics: the tutor mentions an idea he encountered.
The following is according to my understanding.
It seems that, generally speaking, facing an election, the party in power already has an advantage. One might say that, although it’s not a sure thing, the election is the incumbent’s to lose. The challenger, on the other hand, has to do a lot more to win.
Therefore, if the incumbent has an advantage, what might cause them to lose? Well, TLDR News Global, in this interesting video on YouTube, seems to suggest one important reason: inflation. That is, when inflation is higher than voters would like, they ditch the incumbent.
Reflecting on this idea, there’s a case I recall that fits it: the incumbent Carter, likely a good president, faced high inflation (over ten percent) in 1980, and lost to Reagan.
Yet, in 2016, with inflation maybe inside of two percent, the incumbent Democrats lost to Trump. Next, the incumbent Trump, with inflation around the same as in 2016, lost in 2020.
It seems that when inflation is high enough, voters will ditch the incumbent. Yet, when inflation is low, the incumbent isn’t necessarily safe.
Interesting, eh?
Source:
Jack of Oracle Tutoring by Jack and Diane, Campbell River, BC.
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